Melaka Polls: Analysts See BN-PN Edge in Close Race

Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), campaigning together as Muafakat Melaka, have the clearest path to forming the next state government, one analyst said, while others say Saturday’s (Nov 14) Melaka election remains a close contest.

A total of 79 candidates are contesting the 28 state seats, down 29.5 per cent from 112 in 2021, The Star reported. Only three independents are standing, compared with 22 in 2021.

Early voting was held on Tuesday (Nov 10). Election Commission figures cited by Malay Mail showed 9,769 military personnel and spouses and 2,762 police personnel registered as early voters.

Who Is Contesting Where

Pakatan Harapan (PH) is contesting 24 seats, BN 23, Bersama 16, Bersatu seven, PN five and Putra one, with three independents, according to Malay Mail. Bersatu is fielding its own candidates separately from PN.

There are 11 straight fights, 11 three-cornered contests and six four-cornered contests. The four-cornered seats are Gadek, Kelebang, Pengkalan Batu, Ayer Keroh, Bukit Katil and Bemban.

Caretaker Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh is leading the BN-PN campaign.

BN-PN Seen With Clearest Path

KRA Group strategic director Amir Fareed Rahim said BN-PN had the clearest path to forming the state government, citing BN’s incumbency, Ab Rauf’s record and closer Umno-PAS cooperation than in the previous two state elections.

He said PH had room to make gains and that Budget 2027 could help it, while Bersama could draw from the same pool of voters. He added that Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s house-arrest bid could affect the motivation of PH supporters.

“In the closest seats, who stays home may matter as much as who switches sides,” he said.

Analysts Say Race Still Close

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the contest was becoming more clearly defined among BN, PH and PN, and the Umno-PAS understanding had cut the number of candidates by preventing clashes.

But he said cooperation between parties does not guarantee cooperation among voters on the ground, and that this is where Umno and PAS face their real test.

“However, the real test is voter loyalty and vote transferability, not simply the number of candidates,” he said.

Mujibu Muis said the drop in candidates may show consolidation but does not mean the competition is less intense, and the race remains close.

“Fewer candidates do not necessarily make the contest easier to predict,” he said, adding that young voters make up most of the nearly 700,000 registered voters.

Universiti Malaya’s Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said seat-sharing had reduced competition between partner parties, while smaller parties and independents face difficulty with campaign financing, organisation and grassroots mobilisation.

Seats to Watch

Ten of the 28 seats are drawing attention for high-profile candidates or shifting alliances, including Tanjung Bidara, Merlimau, Paya Rumput and Kelebang, while another eight were won by narrow margins in 2021, The Star reported.

In Paya Rumput, which BN won by 629 votes in 2021, PAS is contesting under the BN-PN arrangement, while PKR has fielded Azman Abidin, political secretary to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Amir Fareed said the result in Bemban, where PN is fielding a Wawasan candidate and Bersatu is contesting separately, could show how much PN support has held since 2022.

Amanah is defending Bukit Katil and DAP is defending Ayer Keroh, where Malay voters make up about 42 per cent of the electorate. PKR is seeking to regain Machap Jaya and Kelebang.

Manifesto Pledges

The BN-PN manifesto promises RM30 billion in investments, free water for households using less than 20 cubic metres a month and a five-year freeze on quit rent.

PH’s “Aspirasi Melaka Rumah Kita” manifesto pledges 30 per cent of local authority contracts to young people.

Ab Rauf has said BN delivered 97 per cent of its 2021 manifesto promises, a claim disputed by PH chairman Adly Zahari.

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