CIMB Securities predicts Bank Negara Malaysia will cut the Overnight Policy Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on July 9, 2025, skipping the May Monetary Policy Committee meeting. This allows the central bank to assess US tariff impacts, first-quarter GDP, and April-May trade data. Ongoing US trade talks and a 90-day tariff pause align with the July meeting. Recent export growth of 4.4% until March, against a 5.2% 2025 forecast, and weak manufacturing signals suggest economic risks. Delayed sales and service tax expansion and RON95 subsidy rationalization may curb inflation, supporting a potential rate cut.

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