Switzerland may face recession if the US enforces a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceutical imports, warns economist Hans Gersbach. The pharma sector—dominated by Roche and Novartis—drives up to 8% of Swiss GDP and accounts for two-thirds of its US trade surplus.
100% Tariff on Swiss Medicine
While Trump’s tariff threat remains vague, Gersbach cautions that prolonged impact could be severe. Roche and Novartis have pledged major US investments, and Novartis launched a discounted drug platform to appease pricing demands.
Despite stable stock values, smaller firms remain vulnerable. A previous 39% tariff on non-pharma exports already dented GDP by up to 0.6%, underscoring the risk.
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