Analyst: BN Could Face Leadership Scramble if Ab Rauf Loses Tanjung Bidara

A political analyst says Barisan Nasional (BN) could face a leadership scramble in Melaka if caretaker chief minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh loses his narrowly held Tanjung Bidara seat, even if BN wins the state election.

Universiti Malaya’s Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the chief minister must be an assemblyman with majority confidence. BN would then need another candidate with majority support and submit the name to the Yang di-Pertua Negeri.

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He said Umno could see internal competition, though disagreement need not become a crisis if parties agree on an orderly transition.

Ab Rauf faces PH newcomer Mohd Yunazri Mustamiri in a straight fight for the seat he won by 364 votes in 2021. BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said on 31 October he would propose keeping Rauf as chief minister if BN wins, subject to the Yang di-Pertua Negeri’s powers.

On Pakatan Harapan (PH), Tawfik said not naming a chief ministerial candidate leaves room for post-election talks.

Ex-chief minister Datuk Seri Adly Zahari could be considered if he wins Bukit Katil. IIUM’s Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said BN-PN cooperation has consolidated Malay votes, making it hard for PH to form government. She called Adly PH’s best option if he keeps his own seat.

In 2021, BN won 21 seats, PH five and PN two. A majority needs 15 of 28.