Vietnam’s Rising Influence in ASEAN Takes Centre Stage at the Shangri-La Dialogue

Kuala Lumpur, 25, May, 2026: From May 27 to June 1, 2026, Vietnam’s General Secretary of the Communist Party and State President To Lam, will visit three Southeast Asian countries. 

The trip will include an official visit to Thailand, a state visit to Singapore, a keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, and a state visit to the Philippines.

The key highlight of the trip will be To Lam’s Keynote Address at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, which will take place in Singapore between 29 and 31 May 2026.

He will deliver his remarks on Friday, 29 May 2026, to mark the opening of Asia’s premier defence summit.

Dr Bastian Giegerich, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive, said, ‘His Excellency To Lam takes up the presidency of Viet Nam at a time of enormous global turbulence, the ripple effects of which are being felt across the Asia-Pacific. 

“In his very first weeks in office, he has made a commitment to share Vietnam’s perspectives as an emerging strategic powerhouse and to engage with leading global defence policymakers. 

“We are honoured that he has chosen the 23rd IISS Shangri-La Dialogue as the platform to do this.’

To Lam’s keynote at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue is historically significant as the first time a top Party leader of Vietnam has headlined the summit. 

Experts view it as a pivotal moment for Vietnam to outline its “diplomacy in the era of the nation’s rise” amid rising South China Sea tensions and US-China rivalry.

Analysts observe that Vietnam’s strategic importance in the region is growing, making it a critical “hinge” state.

Experts at Bloomberg note that as Indo-Pacific supply chains shift, Vietnam’s unique balancing act between an assertive China and the United States gives Hanoi immense regional leverage.

Instead of taking sides, Vietnam has opted for a dual-track hedging strategy. Observers point to recent diplomatic offensives that target both increased trade with Beijing and deep economic alignment with the West, avoiding political subordination to either side.

The Dialogue brings together defence ministers, military leaders and senior defence officials, as well as business leaders and security experts, from across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond to discuss critical security challenges.

During his trip, To Lam will introduce Vietnam as a resilient, self-reliant country with political stability, impressive economic growth, an independent foreign policy, and as a responsible member of the international community.

Vietnam has entered 2026 with an ambitious goal of achieving double-digit economic growth as part of its broader vision to become a high-income economy by 2045. 

The target, endorsed during the 14th National Party Congress for the 2026–2030 term, aims for annual GDP growth of at least 10 per cent.

The country’s economy showed strong momentum in the first quarter of 2026, with GDP expanding 7.83 per cent compared to 7.07 per cent a year earlier. Industry and construction grew 8.92 per cent, contributing 44.08 per cent of overall growth, while the services sector rose 8.18 per cent and accounted for more than half of economic expansion.

Investment remained a major growth driver. Total social investment reached VND744.7 trillion (more than US$28 billion), up 10.7 per cent year-on-year. The private sector contributed 54.1 per cent of total investment, followed by the State sector at 27.8 per cent and foreign-invested enterprises at 18.1 per cent. Public investment disbursement increased 12.1 per cent.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) also surged, with registered FDI jumping 42.9 per cent to US$15.2 billion, while disbursed FDI climbed 9.1 per cent to a five-year high of US$5.41 billion.

These are strong figures that will strengthen Vietnam’s resilience in the face of mounting external challenges.

Escalating global trade tensions, particularly new US trade investigations targeting major partners including Vietnam, threaten the country’s export-driven manufacturing sector. 

At the same time, the Middle East conflict has driven up global energy prices and disrupted supply chains.

Inflation rose to 4.65 per cent in March, putting pressure on monetary policy and weakening consumer purchasing power. Economists warn that prolonged global instability and higher oil prices could reduce GDP growth by up to 1.5 percentage points and push inflation above 5 per cent.

While Vietnam’s long-term growth prospects remain strong, analysts believe sustaining rapid expansion will require structural reforms, stronger domestic demand, innovation, renewable energy development and improved economic resilience.

With the country’s newly elected leadership, —spearheaded by General Secretary and State President To Lam, and Prime Minister Le Minh Hung— the country is undertaking sweeping institutional overhauls and economic reforms. Their strategy centralizes governance, prioritizes domestic private enterprise, and aims to drive long-term digital and technological transformation.

A concrete illustration of their reform-minded vision is the passage and execution of Resolution 68. Historically, Vietnam’s socialist-oriented market economy heavily favored state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and foreign direct investment (FDI). 

However, under the new leadership, the government has moved to officially elevate homegrown private businesses, positioning them as the primary drivers of national economic growth.

The new leadership is transforming Vietnam’s governance through aggressive, decisive reforms. Prime Minister Le Minh Hung has mandated a sweeping review to slash bureaucratic procedures by at least 30%, directly tackling systemic bottlenecks that stall domestic business growth.

Local authorities now have greater delegated autonomy to execute decisions rapidly. This agility is reinforced by a strict “filter out” policy designed to replace underperforming or hesitant officials with efficient executors.

Driven by an ambitious vision, the government aims to cultivate globallly, competitive, homegrown corporate champions. By targeting a bold 10% annual GDP growth rate, the administration plans to elevate Vietnam into a high-income nation by 2045.

Vietnam has aggressively expanded its diplomatic and economic ties with Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines, shifting from regional integration to deep, future-focused collaborations. Bilateral relations with these nations now heavily prioritize green transitions, the digital economy, maritime security, and stable supply chains to hedge against global geopolitical uncertainty.

Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Shangri-La Dialogue

Singapore and Vietnam share a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, marking a deepening of their longstanding economic bond.

Ahead of the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Vietnam and Thailand officially established a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in May 2025,unlocking a wave of new foreign direct investment (FDI).

Cooperation with the Philippines has transitioned from traditional agricultural trade into a critical strategic and maritime alignment.

Recognising shared maritime and territorial challenges in the region, Manila and Hanoi have increased high-level diplomatic dialogues regarding the South China Sea, committing to UNCLOS and conflict resolution.

Vietnamese President To Lam’s official state visit to Thailand, alongside high-level ASEAN engagements with Singapore and the Philippines, will underscore Vietnam’s strategy to deepen economic integration, secure supply chains, and bolster regional stability amid global uncertainties.

For Vietnam, it is about economic growth & trade. The visits are heavily focused on elevating bilateral trade targets. For example, Vietnam and Thailand are advancing their “Three Connects” strategy to align supply chains, boost grassroots economies, and integrate sustainable development. Vietnam aims to push bilateral trade with Thailand to US$25 billion.

The trips pave the way for Vietnamese enterprises (like VietJet Air) to expand into neighboring markets like Thailand’s aviation sector. They also position Vietnam as a prime destination for regional foreign investment, particularly in petrochemicals and banking.

Following leadership transitions in Vietnam, these trips—including President To Lam’s first official visit to Thailand since taking office—reaffirm Vietnam’s commitment to an independent, multilateral foreign policy with ASEAN as a top strategic priority.For the three nations (Thailand, Singapore, Philippines), the implications vary.

Vietnam and Thailand are marking 50 years of diplomatic relations and acting on their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The visits allow both nations to collaborate on “Six Countries, One Destination” tourism initiatives, combat transnational crimes (such as online scam syndicates), and address environmental challenges like the Mekong River Basin.

Vietnam intends to engage with Singapore center on regional energy connectivity, particularly advancing the ASEAN Power Grid to ensure long-term energy security.

For the Philippines, recent meetings—most notably at the 48th ASEAN Summit—allow Vietnam and the Philippines to strengthen regional coordination, address food and energy security, and maintain unity amid evolving geopolitical challenges in the South China Sea.

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn has described Vietnam as a key force in ASEAN’s future development, highlighting its growing role in promoting regional stability, integration and community-building.

Ahead of the 48th ASEAN Summit in the Philippines on May 7–8, Hourn said Vietnam has proven itself to be a proactive and responsible member, with strong economic growth and policies that have strengthened ASEAN’s resilience amid emerging global challenges.

As ASEAN begins implementing the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, he noted that Vietnam’s role will become increasingly important in shaping the bloc’s long-term development and improving regional connectivity.

Hourn said Prime Minister Le Minh Hung’s participation in the summit reflects Vietnam’s leadership continuity and commitment to deeper involvement in ASEAN affairs. 

He added that Vietnam is expected to continue contributing actively across ASEAN’s political-security, economic and socio-cultural pillars, while supporting infrastructure development and stronger economic ties within the region.

He also highlighted Vietnam’s contributions through initiatives such as the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI), which helps narrow development gaps and strengthen regional cohesion. Hourn expressed confidence that Vietnam will remain an important and responsible ASEAN member in the years ahead.

Vietnam’s foreign policy, known as “bamboo diplomacy,” has strengthened its position as an influential middle power through a flexible and pragmatic approach to global affairs. Dr. Alexander L. Vuving of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies said the strategy combines strong foundations with diplomatic agility, enabling Vietnam to maintain balanced ties with major powers such as the United States, China, Russia and the United Kingdom without aligning fully with any side.

Dr. Le Dinh Tinh of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam noted that the country has evolved from being security-focused into a proactive middle power that actively shapes regional and international dynamics.

Meanwhile, Dr. Carlyle A. Thayer of UNSW Canberra highlighted Vietnam’s leadership within ASEAN, particularly through its role in ASEAN and ADMM-Plus.

Dr. Ei Sun Oh of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs also stressed Vietnam’s growing leadership and socioeconomic influence in Southeast Asia through stronger regional integration and partnerships.

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